Nasdaq · Poultry Slaughtering and Processing
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET · delayed
Undervalued. Our fair value estimate is USD 38.50 against a price of USD 28.57, +35% implied upside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Pilgrim’s Pride stock: margins, not demand, are the live test.
Pilgrim’s Pride stock is rebounding, but the latest company results show commodity pressure crushing earnings despite firm chicken demand. The day’s move has no disclosed company catalyst; the long-term case still turns on margins recovering.
StockLarge CapConsumerNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 9.88 | 11.2 | 8.02 | 0.45 | 1.73 | 17.8 | 1.14 |
| FY2017 | 10.8 | 13.7 | 9.96 | 0.46 | 2.79 | 18.6 | 2.13 |
| FY2018 | 10.9 | 7.71 | 4.53 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 8.98 | 2.01 |
| FY2019 | 11.4 | 9.38 | 6.05 | 0.32 | 1.83 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2020 | 12.1 | 6.93 | 2.03 | 0.37 | 0.39 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2021 | 14.8 | 9.24 | 1.43 | -0.06 | 0.13 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2022 | 17.5 | 10.4 | 6.74 | 0.18 | 3.10 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2023 | 17.4 | 6.44 | 3.01 | 0.12 | 1.36 | 6.18 | 2.64 |
| FY2024 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 8.42 | 1.53 | 4.57 | 16.0 | 1.17 |
| FY2025 | 18.5 | 12.8 | 8.72 | 1.12 | 4.54 | Not available | Not available |
Current price
USD 28.57
Fair value estimate
USD 38.50
Implied upside
+34.8%
Bear
25%USD 31
Assumed 6x trailing adjusted EBITDA enterprise-value multiple; deduct net debt, then divide by diluted shares.
Commodity and supply pressure persist, keeping investors cautious about the durability of earnings.
Base
50%USD 39
Assumed 7x trailing adjusted EBITDA enterprise-value multiple; deduct net debt, then divide by diluted shares.
Margins recover from the current trough but remain exposed to the ordinary swings of poultry commodity markets.
Bull
25%USD 46
Assumed 8x trailing adjusted EBITDA enterprise-value multiple; deduct net debt, then divide by diluted shares.
Stronger operating execution and more resilient prepared-foods mix support a higher valuation multiple as margins improve.
No news items logged for this company yet.