Research

Caterpillar delivered record revenue and sharply higher margins as volume broadened across its portfolio. The quarter improves the earnings case, but a 34.6x trailing P/E leaves little room for cyclicality.

Revenue and pre-tax profitability weakened sharply, but Coinbase remained free-cash-flow positive. At $172.28, the shares sit close to our $174 base value.

Q2 revenue rose 36.9% and EPS more than doubled as pre-tax margin reached 31.7%. The print strengthens the earnings thesis, but $137 already discounts much of the rebound.

Chevron’s operations improved sharply, but high oil prices and timing benefits amplified the result. At $212.76, the shares already price in much of the durable progress.

Construction and smaller equipment offset another decline in large agriculture, prompting higher guidance. The cycle may be bottoming, but Deere’s valuation already assumes a strong recovery.

FedEx ended FY2026 with double-digit quarterly revenue growth, but EPS and pre-tax margin declined. At $311.80, the shares already discount a measured earnings recovery.

Coinbase gained trading share as Q2 revenue fell 18.5% and adjusted earnings turned negative. At $172.28, the stock already requires a substantial recovery by 2029.

GM produced modest revenue growth, but operating margin, EPS and free cash flow all declined. At $86.12, the shares already sit close to our $90 base-case value.

Goldman Sachs nearly doubled quarterly EPS as revenue and pre-tax margin accelerated. The improvement is real, but a $1,019.77 share price already captures most of it.

GameStop’s retail turnaround is real, but its eBay stake, Bitcoin exposure and dilution now drive the outcome. A $17.50 base value leaves no clear margin of safety.

Intel restored double-digit operating margin and generated $4.45B of quarterly free cash flow. The bottom-line loss and a valuation above even our bull case leave little room for error.

Lowe’s delivered a clear sales rebound, but none of the growth reached per-share earnings. At $196.59, the stock already reflects a balanced recovery case.

Lowe’s returned to meaningful sales growth, but EPS stayed flat as margins and free cash flow declined. The mixed quarter leaves our $195 fair value unchanged.