Nasdaq · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET · delayed
Fairly Valued. Our fair value estimate is USD 180.00 against a price of USD 192.61, -7% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Diamondback Energy stock: more barrels, less debt, same capital budget.
Diamondback Energy declared USD 4.00 per share in dividends in FY2025, down 51.7% from USD 8.29 in FY2024. At USD 192.61 that is a 2.08% trailing yield. The dividend took 70% of FY2025 diluted EPS of USD 5.73.
Diamondback Energy stock has a stronger operating update to weigh than a quiet trading day suggests. Higher production guidance and lower net debt help the case, while oil-price exposure and the unchanged capital bill keep the valuation sensitive.
StockLarge CapEnergyNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 1.21 | Not available | 50.2 | Not available | 4.94 | 7.10 | 1.37 |
| FY2018 | 2.18 | Not available | 46.5 | Not available | 8.06 | 4.40 | 4.25 |
| FY2019 | 3.96 | Not available | 17.5 | Not available | 1.47 | 2.95 | 5.25 |
| FY2020 | 2.81 | Not available | -194.7 | Not available | -28.6 | -30.0 | 5.52 |
| FY2021 | 6.80 | Not available | 58.9 | Not available | 12.2 | 16.9 | 5.99 |
| FY2022 | 9.64 | Not available | 67.5 | Not available | 24.6 | 24.2 | 6.08 |
| FY2023 | 8.41 | Not available | 54.3 | Not available | 17.3 | 15.5 | 6.06 |
| FY2024 | 11.1 | Not available | 39.7 | Not available | 15.5 | 6.97 | 11.9 |
| FY2025 | 15.0 | Not available | 8.43 | Not available | 5.73 | 1.97 | 13.6 |
Current price
USD 192.61
Fair value estimate
USD 180.00
Implied upside
-6.5%
Bear
25%USD 128
Direct equity valuation using assumed normalized EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple.
Lower commodity realizations or weaker production economics reduce normalized earnings, and investors assign a lower multiple to the cyclical profit stream, implying $128 per share.
Base
50%USD 180
Direct equity valuation using assumed normalized EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple.
Production guidance improves and debt falls, while normalized earnings remain below a simple annualization of the strong second quarter to account for commodity volatility.
Bull
25%USD 230
Direct equity valuation using assumed normalized EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple.
Higher production is delivered with stable capital spending and cash generation, while investors accept a higher multiple for stronger normalized earnings.
No news items logged for this company yet.