TTM Technologies stock climbs, but no new company catalyst is disclosed
TTMI stock analysis and fair value · bull and bear case
The call: SageNoodle rates TTM Technologies Overvalued: base-case fair value USD 105 against a price of USD 121, 13% below the quote on a 3-5 years horizon. Underlying operating momentum is real: Q2 FY2026 sales rose 37% year on year and management forecast higher Q3 sales and non-GAAP EPS, with no pending-acquisition contribution included.
TTM Technologies stock is up 4.3% to $131.87, yet the recent company evidence is its August earnings release, not a fresh October announcement. Strong sales and guidance support growth; cash burn and a demanding multiple keep the valuation exposed.
Valuation as of 4 Oct 2026 · Quote currency: USD. Latest quote: Fri, 09 Oct 2026 17:46:29 GMT.
Written with AI from the linked sources and reviewed by a SageNoodle editor. How we work.
Latest quote
USD 121.05
At publication
USD 131.87
Fair value
USD 105.00
Upside
-13.3%
P/E at publication
59.7x
EV/EBITDA
Not available
FCF yield
-0.2%
ROIC 7.8% · Horizon 3-5 years
Why TTM Technologies (TTMI) stock is mispriced
- 01
Underlying operating momentum is real: Q2 FY2026 sales rose 37% year on year and management forecast higher Q3 sales and non-GAAP EPS, with no pending-acquisition contribution included.
- 02
At 59.7 times trailing GAAP earnings, the share price already asks for durable growth; negative trailing free cash flow and acquisition execution make that a demanding bet.
What TTM Technologies does and how it makes money
TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) makes printed circuit boards and substrates, RF components and assemblies, and mission systems. It sells design, engineering and manufacturing services to OEMs, electronic manufacturing services providers, original design manufacturers, distributors and government agencies across aerospace and defense, data center and networking, automotive, and medical, industrial and instrumentation markets worldwide. TTM reports Aerospace & Defense and Commercial segments; in Q2 FY2026, data center and networking represented 40% of sales and aerospace and defense 37%. Its business combines customer-specific engineering with production volume, while demand and working-capital needs vary by end market. TTM Technologies Q2 2026 results and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q.
For the financial history and all coverage, see TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC (TTMI) company research.
What happened today, and what is actually disclosed?
TTMI is up 4.3% at $131.87 on October 4, 2026. That price move does not establish why the shares moved. The headline feed contains no verified October 4 company announcement; its most recent company-specific items point to an Epiq Solutions acquisition completion on September 30, but those are headlines, not documentary proof.
TTM's latest verified operating update is its Q2 FY2026 results, reported August 5. Sales reached $1.0 billion, up 37% year on year, and GAAP diluted EPS was $0.77. No company disclosure connects those August results, the September headlines, or a new announcement to today's price change. The cause of the attention is therefore unclear. TTM Technologies Q2 2026 results
Growth is accelerating, but the cash conversion is less tidy
The growth mix helps explain why investors might focus on the business, without explaining today's move. Management reported that data center and networking revenue rose 91% year on year and made up 40% of Q2 sales; aerospace and defense was 37% of sales and its revenue grew 14%. The company also reported a 1.49 total book-to-bill ratio and program backlog above $1.7 billion. Those figures describe demand and orders, not guaranteed future revenue or margins. TTM Technologies Q2 2026 results
Profitability improved alongside scale: GAAP operating income was $109.1 million versus $61.8 million a year earlier, and operating margin was 10.9% versus 8.5%. But cash requires a separate reading. In the first two quarters of 2026, operating cash flow of $118.172 million fell short of $157.217 million in capital expenditures, leaving free cash flow negative $39.045 million. Receivables and contract assets rose in the period, while the company also spent on property and equipment. The near-term growth bill is being paid before the cash benefit fully arrives. TTM Technologies Q2 2026 results
What does the current price require?
At $131.87, TTMI trades at 59.7 times trailing EPS of $2.21, with a trailing free-cash-flow yield of negative 0.2%. The combination leaves little room for a growth pause: the equity is priced on earnings that must expand, even as current investment absorbs cash. Its market capitalization is $14.2 billion.
A preliminary value range is $75 to $135 per share, with a $105 base case. This is an assumption-led earnings multiple exercise, not a company forecast. The base case applies 30 times an assumed normalized EPS of $3.50, or $105 per share. The bear case uses 25 times $3.00, or $75; the bull case uses 30 times $4.50, or $135. These earnings assumptions are deliberately below or around the company’s non-GAAP outlook and are not equivalent to GAAP EPS. The $105 base case implies about 20% downside from $131.87; the upside case is only modestly above the current quote. The valuation therefore depends on sustaining rapid growth and turning capacity investment into cash.
What could change the thesis next?
Management estimated Q3 FY2026 sales of $1.10 billion to $1.14 billion and non-GAAP net income of $1.21 to $1.27 per diluted share. Its full-year outlook called for about $4.4 billion in sales and non-GAAP EPS approaching $5.00; management explicitly excluded pending acquisitions from that outlook. These are forecasts, not results, and the release says it cannot provide a GAAP reconciliation for the non-GAAP EPS outlook. TTM Technologies Q2 2026 results
The next useful evidence is whether sales and operating margins hold while capital spending and working capital stop outrunning operating cash flow. The acquisition-related growth story also needs completed filings and reported contribution before it belongs in the earnings base case. A quarter of weaker orders, margin compression, or continued negative free cash flow would challenge the valuation more directly than a day of unexplained attention.
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TTM Technologies revenue, margins and cash flow
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 2.53 | 16.7 | 6.85 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 7.45 | 0.76 |
| FY2018 | 2.66 | 16.2 | 8.00 | 0.18 | 1.04 | 8.46 | 0.57 |
| FY2019 | 2.24 | 18.0 | 5.32 | 0.12 | 1.38 | 3.49 | 1.21 |
| FY2020 | 2.13 | 17.7 | 5.14 | 0.17 | 0.39 | 3.46 | 0.85 |
| FY2021 | 2.11 | 17.1 | 1.33 | 0.18 | 1.67 | 0.97 | 0.39 |
| FY2022 | 2.25 | 16.5 | 5.60 | 0.09 | 0.50 | 4.18 | 0.39 |
| FY2023 | 2.50 | 18.4 | 8.43 | 0.17 | 0.91 | 6.88 | 0.48 |
| FY2024 | 2.23 | 18.5 | 1.90 | 0.03 | -0.18 | 1.38 | 0.46 |
| FY2025 | 2.44 | 19.5 | 4.75 | 0.05 | 0.54 | 3.69 | 0.41 |
| FY2026 | 2.91 | 20.7 | 9.11 | 0.00 | 1.68 | 7.81 | 0.41 |
What TTM Technologies management has said
Guidance
Paraphrased commentary
Management estimated Q3 FY2026 sales of $1.10 billion to $1.14 billion and non-GAAP net income of $1.21 to $1.27 per diluted share; its full-year outlook excluded pending acquisitions.
Demand
Paraphrased commentary
Management attributed much of Q2 sales growth to data center and networking demand, and reported 91% year-on-year growth in that end market.
Capex
Paraphrased commentary
First-half 2026 operating cash flow was $118.172 million and capital expenditures were $157.217 million, resulting in negative free cash flow of $39.045 million.
TTM Technologies fair value: bear, base and bull scenarios
Dot marks the latest quote of USD 121.05.
Bear
25%USD 75
Assumed normalized GAAP EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple; direct equity valuation.
Equity value USD 7.90B ÷ 0.105B diluted shares
- Normalized EPS
- $3.00 per diluted share, analyst assumption
- P/E multiple
- 25x, analyst assumption
- Equity value
- $7.875 billion, direct equity valuation
- Diluted shares
- 105 million, rounded from 105.343 million shares outstanding in the June 29, 2026 Form 10-Q; used as a proxy, not a reported diluted-share figure
A slowdown in growth or weaker margins leaves earnings below the growth case, and the market pays a lower multiple. The valuation is direct equity value divided by assumed diluted shares.
Base
50%USD 105
Assumed normalized GAAP EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple; direct equity valuation.
Equity value USD 11.06B ÷ 0.105B diluted shares
- Normalized EPS
- $3.50 per diluted share, analyst assumption
- P/E multiple
- 30x, analyst assumption
- Equity value
- $11.025 billion, direct equity valuation
- Diluted shares
- 105 million, rounded from 105.343 million shares outstanding in the June 29, 2026 Form 10-Q; used as a proxy, not a reported diluted-share figure
Growth continues but cash conversion and acquisition execution keep the multiple below the trailing multiple. The valuation is direct equity value divided by assumed diluted shares.
Bull
25%USD 135
Assumed normalized GAAP EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple; direct equity valuation.
Equity value USD 14.22B ÷ 0.105B diluted shares
- Normalized EPS
- $4.50 per diluted share, analyst assumption
- P/E multiple
- 30x, analyst assumption
- Equity value
- $14.175 billion, direct equity valuation
- Diluted shares
- 105 million, rounded from 105.343 million shares outstanding in the June 29, 2026 Form 10-Q; used as a proxy, not a reported diluted-share figure
The elevated growth rate persists and capacity investment translates into earnings and cash generation. The valuation is direct equity value divided by assumed diluted shares.
TTM Technologies (TTMI) stock: bullish vs bearish case
Bull case
- Q2 FY2026 sales rose 37% year on year, and the data center and networking end market grew 91% year on year.
- Operating income and operating margin improved year on year in Q2 FY2026.
- The company reported a 1.49 total book-to-bill ratio and program backlog above $1.7 billion.
Bear case
- The trailing P/E is 59.7x while trailing free cash flow is negative.
- First-half 2026 capital expenditures exceeded operating cash flow by $39.045 million.
- Management identifies dependence on a small number of customers, product demand, pricing and significant capital expenditures among risks in its release.
TTM Technologies stock risks
| Risk | Severity | Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital spending and working-capital drag | High | Medium | First-half 2026 free cash flow was negative $39.045 million. If the working-capital investment and capital spending persist without corresponding cash generation, earnings growth will overstate shareholder cash returns. |
| Demand concentration and cyclicality | High | Medium | Data center and networking was 40% of Q2 FY2026 sales, while company disclosures identify dependence on a small number of customers and product demand as risks. |
| Acquisition and financing execution | High | Medium | TTM described pending European acquisitions and additional borrowing capacity, but their completed results or contribution to earnings have not been established. |
| Valuation compression | High | High | At 59.7 times trailing EPS, the share price leaves limited room for slower earnings growth or lower margins. |
TTM Technologies catalysts: what could move TTMI stock
- Next reported quarterly results; date not suppliedNeutral
Q3 FY2026 results against company guidance
Compare reported sales and non-GAAP EPS with management's Q3 ranges, and check whether operating cash flow keeps pace with investment.
- Not suppliedNeutral
Acquisition contribution and financing disclosures
The company said Q3 estimates and full-year outlook excluded pending acquisitions; subsequent reported contribution and financing terms could change the earnings and leverage picture.
TTM Technologies fair value history
| Period | Fair value | Verdict | Note |
|---|
TTM Technologies news
TTM Technologies stock: common questions
- Is TTM Technologies (TTMI) stock undervalued or overvalued?
- SageNoodle rates TTM Technologies Overvalued: base-case fair value USD 105 against a price of USD 121, 13% below the quote on a 3-5 years horizon. Underlying operating momentum is real: Q2 FY2026 sales rose 37% year on year and management forecast higher Q3 sales and non-GAAP EPS, with no pending-acquisition contribution included.
- What is TTM Technologies's fair value?
- Bear USD 75 (25% probability, Assumed normalized GAAP EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple; direct equity valuation.); Base USD 105 (50% probability, Assumed normalized GAAP EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple; direct equity valuation.); Bull USD 135 (25% probability, Assumed normalized GAAP EPS multiplied by an assumed earnings multiple; direct equity valuation.). Growth continues but cash conversion and acquisition execution keep the multiple below the trailing multiple. The valuation is direct equity value divided by assumed diluted shares.
- What is the bull case for TTMI stock?
- Q2 FY2026 sales rose 37% year on year, and the data center and networking end market grew 91% year on year. Operating income and operating margin improved year on year in Q2 FY2026. The company reported a 1.49 total book-to-bill ratio and program backlog above $1.7 billion.
- What is the bear case for TTMI stock?
- The trailing P/E is 59.7x while trailing free cash flow is negative. First-half 2026 capital expenditures exceeded operating cash flow by $39.045 million. Management identifies dependence on a small number of customers, product demand, pricing and significant capital expenditures among risks in its release.
- What are the biggest risks to TTM Technologies stock?
- Capital spending and working-capital drag (High severity): First-half 2026 free cash flow was negative $39.045 million. If the working-capital investment and capital spending persist without corresponding cash generation, earnings growth will overstate shareholder cash returns. Demand concentration and cyclicality (High severity): Data center and networking was 40% of Q2 FY2026 sales, while company disclosures identify dependence on a small number of customers and product demand as risks. Acquisition and financing execution (High severity): TTM described pending European acquisitions and additional borrowing capacity, but their completed results or contribution to earnings have not been established.
- What could move TTMI stock next?
- Next reported quarterly results; date not supplied: Q3 FY2026 results against company guidance. Compare reported sales and non-GAAP EPS with management's Q3 ranges, and check whether operating cash flow keeps pace with investment. Not supplied: Acquisition contribution and financing disclosures. The company said Q3 estimates and full-year outlook excluded pending acquisitions; subsequent reported contribution and financing terms could change the earnings and leverage picture.
Company reference pages
Browse company filings and market quotes to check the latest information. These pages update over time and are separate from the documents cited in this report.