NYSE · Retail-Family Clothing Stores
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:31 PM ET · delayed
Fairly Valued. Our fair value estimate is USD 21.60 against a price of USD 23.31, -7% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in GAP Inc stock: the latest filing offers no explanation for today’s rise.
GAP declared USD 0.66 per share in dividends in FY2026, up 10.0% from USD 0.60 in FY2026. At USD 23.31 that is a 2.83% trailing yield. The dividend took 31% of FY2026 diluted EPS of USD 2.13.
GAP Inc stock is up 3.5% today, but the available company documents identify no new event explaining the move. The latest results show brand-level growth and a large one-off tariff benefit, leaving valuation dependent on normalized earnings.
StockLarge CapRetailNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 15.5 | 36.4 | 7.68 | 1.20 | 1.69 | 22.3 | -0.47 |
| FY2019 | 15.9 | 38.3 | 9.33 | 0.65 | 2.14 | 26.6 | -0.53 |
| FY2020 | 16.6 | 38.1 | 8.21 | 0.68 | 2.59 | 22.4 | 0.17 |
| FY2021 | 16.4 | 37.4 | 3.50 | 0.71 | 0.93 | 9.93 | -0.12 |
| FY2021 | 13.8 | 34.1 | -6.25 | -0.15 | -1.78 | -14.1 | 0.23 |
| FY2022 | 16.7 | 39.8 | 4.86 | 0.12 | 0.67 | 15.2 | 0.61 |
| FY2023 | 15.6 | 34.3 | -0.44 | -0.08 | -0.55 | -1.47 | 0.27 |
| FY2025 | 14.9 | 38.8 | 3.76 | 1.11 | 1.34 | 10.8 | -0.39 |
| FY2026 | 15.1 | 41.3 | 7.37 | 1.04 | 2.20 | 18.5 | -0.84 |
| FY2026 | 15.4 | 40.8 | 7.26 | 0.82 | 2.13 | 16.6 | -1.12 |
Current price
USD 23.31
Fair value estimate
USD 21.60
Implied upside
-7.3%
Bear
25%USD 15
Direct equity valuation using assumed normalized EPS times an assumed P/E multiple.
A continued slump at Old Navy and Athleta, or margin pressure from promotions and tariffs, leaves earnings below the guidance midpoint and investors unwilling to pay more than a low multiple.
Base
50%USD 22
Direct equity valuation using the midpoint of adjusted FY2026 EPS guidance and an assumed P/E multiple.
Underlying earnings broadly meet the company’s adjusted outlook, but uneven brand performance caps the multiple at a modest level.
Bull
25%USD 29
Direct equity valuation using an assumed normalized EPS and an assumed P/E multiple.
Gap sustains strong comparable growth, Old Navy stabilizes, and higher-quality earnings support a higher multiple.
No news items logged for this company yet.