Nasdaq · Semiconductors & Related Devices
Quote as of Oct 9, 1:00 PM ET · delayed
Overvalued. Our fair value estimate is USD 109.50 against a price of USD 141.03, -22% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in FormFactor stock: Q2 growth meets a 102-times earnings valuation.
FormFactor stock has a fresh operating case after a record fiscal second quarter, but no disclosed event explains why shares are attracting attention today. At 102.2 times trailing earnings, the valuation leaves little room for an ordinary slowdown.
StockLarge CapSemiconductorsNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 0.38 | 26.8 | -12.5 | Not available | -0.10 | -7.02 | 0.04 |
| FY2017 | 0.55 | 39.3 | 8.44 | 0.07 | 0.55 | 6.48 | 0.01 |
| FY2018 | 0.53 | 39.7 | 6.82 | 0.05 | 1.38 | 4.42 | -0.03 |
| FY2019 | 0.59 | 40.3 | 8.42 | 0.10 | 0.51 | 5.61 | -0.09 |
| FY2020 | 0.69 | 41.5 | 12.1 | 0.11 | 0.99 | 8.50 | -0.15 |
| FY2021 | 0.77 | 41.9 | 12.7 | 0.07 | 1.06 | 9.22 | -0.13 |
| FY2022 | 0.75 | 39.6 | 7.34 | 0.07 | 0.65 | 5.27 | -0.09 |
| FY2023 | 0.66 | 39.0 | 12.5 | 0.01 | 1.05 | 7.08 | -0.16 |
| FY2024 | 0.76 | 40.3 | 8.48 | 0.08 | 0.89 | 5.32 | -0.18 |
| FY2025 | 0.78 | 39.3 | 7.27 | 0.01 | 0.69 | 4.30 | -0.09 |
Current price
USD 141.03
Fair value estimate
USD 109.50
Implied upside
-22.4%
Bear
30%USD 66
Direct equity valuation using trailing EPS and an assumed 45x earnings multiple.
This case assumes fiscal Q2’s earnings step-up does not persist, and the market assigns a lower multiple to cyclical earnings.
Base
50%USD 110
Direct equity valuation using trailing EPS and an assumed 75x earnings multiple.
This preliminary case recognizes the recent operating improvement through a premium multiple while stopping short of pricing the company as though the latest quarter’s earnings level were fully durable.
Bull
20%USD 161
Direct equity valuation using trailing EPS and an assumed 110x earnings multiple.
This case assumes demand strength and recent margin gains support sustained earnings growth while the market continues to award FORM a very high multiple.
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