NYSE · Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:31 PM ET · delayed
Overvalued. Our fair value estimate is USD 77.40 against a price of USD 98.14, -21% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Estée Lauder stock: recovery is real, but the valuation leaves little room.
Estee Lauder Companies declared USD 1.40 per share in dividends in FY2026, down 18.1% from USD 1.71 in FY2025. At USD 98.14 that is a 1.43% trailing yield. The dividend took 280% of FY2026 diluted EPS of USD 0.50.
Estée Lauder stock is rising today, but the cause is not established by the available reporting. Fiscal 2026 recovery supports the business; the price already asks for further improvement.
StockLarge CapConsumerNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 11.8 | 79.4 | 14.4 | 1.29 | 3.35 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2018 | 13.7 | 79.2 | 15.0 | 1.93 | 2.95 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2019 | 14.9 | 77.2 | 15.6 | 1.77 | 4.82 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2020 | 14.3 | 75.2 | 4.24 | 1.66 | 1.86 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2021 | 16.2 | 76.4 | 16.1 | 2.99 | 7.79 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2022 | 17.7 | 75.7 | 17.9 | 2.00 | 6.55 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2023 | 15.9 | 71.3 | 9.48 | 0.73 | 2.79 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2024 | 15.6 | 71.7 | 6.21 | 1.44 | 1.08 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2025 | 14.3 | 74.0 | -5.48 | 0.67 | -3.15 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2026 | 15.1 | 75.5 | 5.18 | 1.32 | 0.50 | Not available | Not available |
Current price
USD 98.14
Fair value estimate
USD 77.40
Implied upside
-21.1%
Bear
25%USD 48
Direct equity valuation using fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint and an assumed 15x P/E.
Growth and margin delivery disappoint; a lower multiple reflects weaker confidence in normalized earnings.
Base
50%USD 77
Direct equity valuation using fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint and an assumed 24x P/E.
Fiscal 2027 growth and margin recovery broadly track management’s outlook, while the current price remains ahead of this earnings-based estimate.
Bull
25%USD 100
Direct equity valuation using fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint and an assumed 31x P/E.
Sales recovery broadens and margin expansion convinces investors that improved adjusted earnings are durable, supporting a higher multiple.
No news items logged for this company yet.