NYSE · Plastic Material, Synth Resin/Rubber, Cellulos (No Glass)
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET · delayed
Undervalued. Our fair value estimate is USD 60.00 against a price of USD 44.95, +33% implied upside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Celanese stock: a sharp Q2 rebound still has a softer quarter ahead.
Celanese stock has a stronger second-quarter earnings run rate, but management expects moderation in Q3. The recovery helps the debt-reduction case; it does not yet settle whether earnings can hold.
StockLarge CapMaterialsNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 5.39 | 26.1 | 17.3 | 0.65 | 6.18 | 13.3 | 2.30 |
| FY2017 | 6.14 | 24.6 | 14.0 | 0.54 | 6.09 | 10.8 | 2.82 |
| FY2018 | 7.16 | 27.6 | 18.6 | 1.22 | 8.91 | 16.6 | 2.92 |
| FY2019 | 6.30 | 25.5 | 13.2 | 1.08 | 6.84 | 11.1 | 2.99 |
| FY2020 | 5.66 | 22.9 | 11.7 | 0.98 | 16.8 | 7.29 | 2.72 |
| FY2021 | 8.54 | 31.4 | 22.8 | 1.29 | 16.9 | 19.4 | 3.19 |
| FY2022 | 9.67 | 24.6 | 14.3 | 1.28 | 17.3 | 5.56 | 12.4 |
| FY2023 | 10.9 | 23.6 | 15.2 | 1.33 | 17.8 | 6.43 | 11.6 |
| FY2024 | 10.3 | 22.8 | -7.01 | 0.53 | -14.1 | -3.22 | 11.6 |
| FY2025 | 9.54 | 20.4 | -8.24 | 0.80 | -10.6 | -3.73 | 11.3 |
Current price
USD 44.95
Fair value estimate
USD 60.00
Implied upside
+33.5%
Bear
35%USD 40
Direct equity valuation using assumed adjusted EPS multiplied by an assumed price-to-adjusted-earnings multiple.
A weaker-than-guided earnings outcome and limited evidence of durable cash generation keep the multiple low. Leverage makes that shortfall consequential.
Base
45%USD 60
Direct equity valuation using management’s approximately $6.00 full-year adjusted EPS guide and an assumed 10× multiple.
The company broadly delivers its adjusted EPS guide and starts converting stronger operating performance into cash and debt reduction. The multiple remains restrained because FY2025 returns were weak and Q3 is expected to moderate.
Bull
20%USD 78
Direct equity valuation using assumed adjusted EPS multiplied by an assumed price-to-adjusted-earnings multiple.
Pricing and cost actions prove more durable than the expected Q3 moderation suggests, and better cash generation reduces the balance-sheet discount.
No news items logged for this company yet.