Nasdaq · Services-Prepackaged Software
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:31 PM ET · delayed
Overvalued. Our fair value estimate is USD 102.00 against a price of USD 168.84, -40% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Shopify stock: strong growth still has to justify a 102-times P/E.
Shopify stock is drawing attention, but the documents show no fresh company announcement tied to today’s move. The latest reported quarter was strong; at 102.3 times trailing earnings, the valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
StockLarge CapTechnologyNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 0.67 | 56.5 | -7.30 | -0.01 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| FY2018 | 1.07 | 55.6 | -8.56 | -0.02 | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| FY2019 | 1.58 | 54.9 | -8.94 | 0.01 | -1.10 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2020 | 2.93 | 52.6 | 3.08 | 0.38 | 2.59 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2021 | 4.61 | 53.8 | 5.83 | 0.48 | 2.29 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2022 | 5.60 | 49.2 | -14.7 | -0.19 | -2.73 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2023 | 7.06 | 49.8 | -20.1 | 0.91 | 0.10 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2024 | 8.88 | 50.4 | 12.1 | 1.60 | 1.55 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2025 | 11.6 | 48.1 | 12.7 | 2.01 | 0.94 | Not available | Not available |
Current price
USD 168.84
Fair value estimate
USD 102.00
Implied upside
-39.6%
Bear
25%USD 74
Direct equity valuation using assumed trailing free cash flow multiple.
This case assumes limited multiple support and no growth premium over the trailing free cash flow base.
Base
55%USD 102
Direct equity valuation using assumed trailing free cash flow multiple.
This base case gives the company a substantial cash-flow multiple while recognizing the valuation already requires sustained growth.
Bull
20%USD 150
Direct equity valuation using assumed trailing free cash flow multiple.
This case assumes investors continue to award a premium multiple as strong growth and cash conversion persist.
No news items logged for this company yet.