NYSE · Services-Business Services, NEC
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:31 PM ET · delayed
Fairly Valued. Our fair value estimate is USD 623.16 against a price of USD 674.67, -8% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Fair Isaac stock: VantageScore’s new access puts mortgage pricing at risk.
Fair Isaac stock faces a sharper competitive test as all approved Enterprise lenders can now use VantageScore 4.0. That changes the mortgage-score bargaining backdrop, not yet the evidence on FICO’s broader earnings engine.
StockLarge CapFinancialsNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 0.88 | Not available | 19.2 | Not available | 3.39 | 13.7 | 0.42 |
| FY2017 | 0.93 | Not available | 19.5 | 0.21 | 4.14 | 15.5 | 0.36 |
| FY2018 | 1.03 | Not available | 17.0 | 0.19 | 4.06 | 17.0 | 0.44 |
| FY2019 | 1.16 | Not available | 21.9 | 0.24 | 6.34 | 22.3 | 0.50 |
| FY2020 | 1.29 | Not available | 22.9 | 0.34 | 7.90 | 21.8 | 0.58 |
| FY2021 | 1.32 | Not available | 38.4 | 0.42 | 13.4 | 44.5 | 0.81 |
| FY2022 | 1.38 | Not available | 39.4 | 0.50 | 14.2 | 41.9 | 1.69 |
| FY2023 | 1.51 | Not available | 42.5 | 0.46 | 16.9 | 45.2 | 1.67 |
| FY2024 | 1.72 | Not available | 42.7 | 0.62 | 20.4 | 46.5 | 2.06 |
| FY2025 | 1.99 | Not available | 46.5 | 0.77 | 26.5 | 55.8 | 2.92 |
Current price
USD 674.67
Fair value estimate
USD 623.16
Implied upside
-7.6%
Bear
25%USD 519
Direct equity valuation using analyst-assumption P/E multiple × supplied trailing EPS.
A lower multiple reflects sustained pressure on mortgage-score pricing or adoption that weakens FICO’s ability to defend economics. This is a valuation stress case, not a prediction that policy alone causes those outcomes.
Base
50%USD 623
Direct equity valuation using analyst-assumption P/E multiple × supplied trailing EPS.
The base case treats the new lender choice as a real competitive risk but does not assume rapid displacement or a quantified earnings decline without adoption and pricing evidence.
Bull
25%USD 762
Direct equity valuation using analyst-assumption P/E multiple × supplied trailing EPS.
The bull case assumes Classic FICO retains substantial use in mortgage lending and that strong existing economics remain supportable despite a newly available alternative.
No news items logged for this company yet.