Spotlight
EPAM Systems stock: the 1.2% rise has no verified catalyst
EPAM Systems stock is up 1.2% to $108.23, but the reason is unclear. A recent European market-data project is a lead, not proof of what moved shares today.
StockLarge CapTechnologyNYSE · Services-Computer Programming Services
EPAMEPAM Systems stock: fair value and analysis
StockLarge CapTechnologySoftwareValueQuote as of Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET · delayed
Fairly Valued
- Price
- USD 113.09
- Day change
- -0.68%
- Fair value
- USD 110.55
- Upside
- -2.2%
- Market cap
- USD 5.9B
- 52-week range
- USD 73–USD 223
- Employees
- —
- Founded
- —
- HQ
- NEWTOWN, PA
Is EPAM Systems (EPAM) stock undervalued?
Fairly Valued. Our fair value estimate is USD 110.55 against a price of USD 113.09, -2% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in EPAM Systems stock: the 1.2% rise has no verified catalyst.
The business
Revenue by segment
Revenue by geography
Published research
Earnings coverage
No earnings notes for this company yet.
Financial performance
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 1.16 | Not available | 11.5 | 0.14 | 1.87 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2017 | 1.45 | Not available | 11.9 | 0.16 | 1.32 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2018 | 1.84 | Not available | 13.3 | 0.25 | 4.24 | Not available | Not available |
| FY2019 | 2.29 | Not available | 13.2 | 0.19 | 4.53 | 14.8 | -0.91 |
| FY2020 | 2.66 | Not available | 14.3 | 0.48 | 5.60 | 14.9 | -1.30 |
| FY2021 | 3.76 | Not available | 14.4 | 0.46 | 8.15 | 17.0 | -1.42 |
| FY2022 | 4.82 | Not available | 11.9 | 0.38 | 7.09 | 14.9 | -1.65 |
| FY2023 | 4.69 | Not available | 10.7 | 0.53 | 7.06 | 11.3 | -2.01 |
| FY2024 | 4.73 | Not available | 11.5 | 0.53 | 7.84 | 11.8 | -1.26 |
| FY2025 | 5.46 | Not available | 9.53 | 0.61 | 6.72 | 11.1 | -1.27 |
Valuation view
Current price
USD 113.09
Fair value estimate
USD 110.55
Implied upside
-2.2%
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Scenario model
Bear
25%USD 81
Direct equity valuation using assumed flat TTM EPS and an 11x P/E.
A lower multiple reflects the risk that the recent operating-margin compression and weak first-half FY2026 quarterly free cash flow persist. This is a sensitivity case, not a forecast.
Base
50%USD 111
Direct equity valuation using assumed flat TTM EPS and a 15x P/E.
The base case gives no credit for a margin rebound or for unverified project economics. It puts the share near the supplied current price.
Bull
25%USD 140
Direct equity valuation using assumed flat TTM EPS and a 19x P/E.
A higher multiple would require evidence that growth can coexist with better margins and stronger cash conversion. The current evidence does not establish that outcome.
Thesis tracker
Company news
No news items logged for this company yet.