NYSE · Healthcare
Quote as of Oct 9, 4:00 PM ET · delayed
Fairly Valued. Our fair value estimate is USD 7.06 against a price of USD 7.06, +0% implied upside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Emergent BioSolutions stock: a 66% sales jump and a cut forecast.
Emergent BioSolutions develops and manufactures medical countermeasures, sells naloxone nasal sprays and provides contract manufacturing services. Its revenues combine commercial product sales with government procurement and contract-driven demand.
Emergent BioSolutions stock has a striking mismatch: Q2 revenue jumped 66%, yet management lowered its 2026 revenue forecast and impaired NARCAN by $191.3 million. Government procurement can support the turnaround, but cash conversion and debt remain the test.
StockSmall CapHealthcareNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 0.49 | Not available | 21.6 | -0.02 | 1.13 | 9.87 | -0.02 |
| FY2017 | 0.56 | Not available | 22.2 | 0.15 | 1.71 | 10.6 | -0.16 |
| FY2018 | 0.78 | Not available | 11.5 | -0.03 | 1.22 | 3.90 | 0.70 |
| FY2019 | 1.11 | Not available | 10.3 | 0.10 | 1.04 | 4.71 | 0.65 |
| FY2020 | 1.58 | 58.7 | 27.8 | 0.40 | 5.68 | 14.8 | 0.26 |
| FY2021 | 1.77 | 50.3 | 19.3 | 0.10 | 4.06 | 11.0 | 0.27 |
| FY2022 | 1.12 | 34.3 | -15.2 | -0.15 | -4.22 | -4.79 | 0.77 |
| FY2023 | 1.05 | 30.3 | -69.2 | -0.26 | -14.8 | -37.8 | 0.76 |
| FY2024 | 1.04 | Not available | -10.4 | 0.04 | -3.60 | -7.26 | 0.60 |
| FY2025 | 0.74 | Not available | 13.5 | 0.16 | 0.93 | 7.11 | 0.38 |
Current price
USD 7.06
Fair value estimate
USD 7.06
Implied upside
+0.0%
Bear
30%USD 3
Illustrative direct-equity stress case, not a forecast
Assumes weak procurement and commercial erosion constrain equity value.
Base
50%USD 7
Provisional market-price anchor; no intrinsic-value estimate is established
This base value is therefore a neutral reference price, not a conclusion that intrinsic value equals the market quote.
Bull
20%USD 12
Illustrative direct-equity recovery case, not a forecast
Assumes durable MCM procurement, successful restructuring and improvement in commercial economics. The source evidence does not establish these outcomes or support a numerical probability; the assigned probability is an illustrative analyst judgment.
| October 10, 2026 | USD 7 | Fairly Valued | Provisional market-price anchor only; the memo does not establish a defensible intrinsic fair value or multi-year forecast. |
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