NYSE · Industrial Inorganic Chemicals
Quote as of Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET · delayed
Fairly Valued. Our fair value estimate is USD 268.80 against a price of USD 281.60, -5% implied downside. Reasoning and scenarios are in Air Products stock: project exits cloud a stronger operating quarter.
Air Products & Chemicals declared USD 7.14 per share in dividends in FY2025, up 1.1% from USD 7.06 in FY2024. At USD 281.60 that is a 2.54% trailing yield.
Air Products stock is up 0.7% at $279.45, but no verified news explains today’s move. Its latest results pair stronger adjusted earnings guidance with a costly retreat from clean-energy projects.
StockLarge CapIndustrialsNo earnings notes for this company yet.
Revenue (USD, billions)
Margins (%)
Free cash flow (USD, billions)
Estimated ROIC (%)
Net debt (USD, billions)
Monetary values are in USD; revenue, FCF and net debt are in billions; EPS is per share. Missing values appear as gaps and “Not available.” Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings, latest restated values; quarterly cash flow derived from year-to-date figures; Q4 = fiscal year minus nine months. ROIC is NOPAT (21% tax) over debt plus equity.
| Period | Revenue | Gross % | Op % | FCF | EPS | ROIC % | Net debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 7.50 | 31.0 | 20.5 | Not available | 2.89 | 10.7 | 2.98 |
| FY2017 | 8.19 | 29.8 | 17.6 | Not available | 13.7 | 8.17 | 0.56 |
| FY2018 | 8.93 | 30.7 | 22.0 | Not available | 6.78 | 10.6 | 0.98 |
| FY2019 | 8.92 | 32.7 | 24.0 | Not available | 7.94 | 11.8 | 1.03 |
| FY2020 | 8.86 | 33.9 | 25.3 | Not available | 8.49 | 8.83 | 2.70 |
| FY2021 | 10.3 | Not available | 22.1 | Not available | 9.43 | 8.49 | 3.22 |
| FY2022 | 12.7 | Not available | 18.4 | Not available | 10.1 | 9.03 | 4.60 |
| FY2023 | 12.6 | Not available | 19.8 | Not available | 10.3 | 8.01 | 8.68 |
| FY2024 | 12.1 | Not available | 36.9 | Not available | 17.2 | 11.2 | 11.5 |
| FY2025 | 12.0 | Not available | -7.29 | Not available | -1.77 | -2.10 | 16.1 |
Current price
USD 281.60
Fair value estimate
USD 268.80
Implied upside
-4.5%
Bear
25%USD 228
Direct equity valuation using assumed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS and a price-to-adjusted-EPS multiple.
A lower multiple reflects concern that project exits, heavy investment needs and weak recent reported returns leave less room for error, even if management reaches its adjusted guidance midpoint.
Base
50%USD 269
Direct equity valuation using the midpoint of company fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance and an assumed 20.0x multiple.
The base case gives credit for quarterly adjusted operating improvement and lifted guidance, while keeping the multiple below the premium case given investment demands and the project write-offs.
Bull
25%USD 310
Direct equity valuation using assumed fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS and a higher price-to-adjusted-EPS multiple.
The bull case assumes management delivers the top of its guidance and the market assigns a higher multiple as earnings growth and capital discipline become more credible.
No news items logged for this company yet.