UNP · Q2 FY2026
UNION PACIFIC CORP Q2 FY2026 earnings analysis
By SageNoodle ResearchBullish
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.86B | $6.15B (yr ago) | Beat |
| EPS | $3.36 | $3.15 (yr ago) | Beat |
| Free Cash Flow | N/M for quarterly comparison | N/M (yr ago) | Miss |
| Gross Margin | N/M for railroad accounting | N/M (yr ago) | Miss |
| Operating Margin | 40.3% (pre-tax-margin field) | 41.0% (yr ago) | Miss |
What changed
Operating revenue rose 12.0% year over year to $6.86 billion and diluted EPS increased 6.7% to $3.36, supported by 2.0% carload growth, higher fuel surcharges and core pricing. The margin field declined 0.7 percentage points to 40.3% as higher fuel prices more than offset productivity gains, but management raised its 2026 EPS-growth outlook to the high-single digits.
Impact on the investment thesis
With no prior SageNoodle fair value, this update establishes a $272 base-case value rather than recording a change. The stronger outlook supports the earnings base, but the fuel-driven margin decline and a current price above base-case value argue against applying a higher multiple.